Wczoraj poznaliśmy odczyty indeksów koniunktury dla usług. Wynik dla strefy euro okazał się niemal dokładnie zgodny z oczekiwaniami – miało być 51,6 pkt, a było 0,1 pkt więcej. To praktycznie pełna zgodność z prognozami, a ostatni raz tak wysoki wynik widzieliśmy w lutym. Trochę lepiej wypadła Wielka Brytania a– z 52,1 pkt przy przypuszczanych 51,8 pkt. W USA dane pokazały lepszy od oczekiwań indeks PMI i słabszy indeks ISM. Tak to się niestety czasem zdarza w badaniach ankietowych.
Tak czasem bywa w badaniach ankietowych – nie są to te same grupy respondentów, więc jedna z nich może być bardziej optymistyczna niż druga. W obu przypadkach chodzi jednak o kadrę zarządzającą odpowiedzialną za logistykę w branży usługowej, a więc grupy zdecydowanie zbliżone. W obu przypadkach wartość bezwzględna wskaźnika była też wyraźnie wyższa niż w Europie. Inwestorzy skupili się jednak na słabszym od oczekiwań indeksie ISM, który zwyczajowo jest ważniejszy, dlatego dolar wczoraj tracił.
Wczoraj poznaliśmy raport ADP na temat zatrudnienia w USA. Zmiana wynosiła zaledwie 44 tysiące, czyli zauważalnie mniej niż oczekiwane 70 tysięcy. Dane te zwyczajowo publikowane są na dwa dni przed głównymi odczytami z rynku pracy. Przeważnie raport ADP dobrze przewiduje nadchodzące zmiany.
Mniejsza liczba utworzonych miejsc pracy to zawsze potencjalny problem dla gospodarki – słabsze dane z rynku pracy to przeważnie słabszy dolar. Nie inaczej było wczoraj. To również także potencjalnie niższe stopy procentowe – FED ma bowiem podwójny mandat i dba nie tylko o poziom inflacji, ale również o zatrudnienie.
W ostatnich dniach, obserwując ceny ropy naftowej, inwestorzy wierzą, że prowadzone są negocjacje. Patrząc jednak na komunikaty obu stron, które wzbogacają proces zapowiedziami działań odwetowych na wypadek ataku drugiej strony, można mieć poważne wątpliwości. Szczególnie że zbliża się weekend, a to zawsze większy czynnik ryzyk. Możemy być znowu świadkami puszczenia inwestorom nerwów i hurtowego podkupienia ropy przed piątkowym zamknięcie bojąc się, co wydarzy się podczas zamknięcia rynków. Nadal jednak nie wiadomo jak rozwiązana będzie kwestie żeglugi przez Cieśninę Ormuz. Jest to drugi co do wielkości problem tych negocjacji, oprócz oczywiście kwestii atomowej w samym Iranie.
Dzisiaj w kalendarzu danych makroekonomicznych warto zwrócić uwagę na:
\n14:30 – Czechy – decyzja CNB w sprawie stóp procentowych,
\n14:30 – USA – wnioski o zasiłek dla bezrobotnych.
/materiał partnera
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