Wczoraj zgodnie z oczekiwaniami większości inwestorów nie doszło do zmian stóp procentowych. W samym głosowaniu mieliśmy jednak 9 głosów za utrzymaniem, a 3 za ich podwyżką. Jak widać, utrzymująca się wysoka inflacja przemawia do wyobraźni członków tego gremium.
Patrząc na reakcję rynków walutowych, było wyraźnie widać, że wcale nie tak mała część inwestorów żyła nadzieją na podwyżki już teraz na lipcowym posiedzeniu. Po samej decyzji dolar znalazł się w silnym odwrocie – stracił niemal centa na wartości względem euro. Natomiast od tego czasu do dzisiaj rana już część tej wartości odrobił. W relacji do złotego oglądaliśmy spadek z poziomu 3,80 zł na 3,77 zł.
Jeżeli czegoś można być obecnie pewnym na konferencji prasowej banku centralnego, to tego, że osoba odpowiadająca na pytania będzie unikać przewidywań kolejnych decyzji. Bardzo prawdopodobny jest natomiast banał o reagowaniu na napływające dane makroekonomiczne.
Co to oznacza w praktyce? Że FED otwiera sobie możliwość podwyżki, ale wcale nie musi do niej dojść. Z drugiej strony, skoro już teraz 3 osoby głosowały za podniesieniem stóp procentowych, to jeśli sytuacja się nie uspokoi, to na wrześniowym posiedzeniu ta liczba może wzrosnąć. Obecnie szansa na wzrost wynosi 65%, ale spotkanie jest dopiero 16 września, do tego czasu może się jeszcze dużo na rynku wydarzyć.
Ostatnia zmiana stóp procentowych w Chile miała miejsce w grudniu 2025 roku. Wtedy jednak inflacja wynosiła 2,8%. W styczniu spadła do 2,4%, co teoretycznie otwierało furtkę do dalszych cięć. Tutaj jednak pojawił się podobny problem jak dla reszty świata – wojna w Zatoce Perskiej spowodowała szokowy wzrost cen paliw. Za tym poszedł wzrost inflacji konsumenckiej. Co ważne inflacja bazowa pozostała na niemal niezmienionych poziomach. W rezultacie kolejne obniżki stóp w Chile wydają się gwałtownie oddalać. Waluta chilijska zareagowała na te dane bardzo spokojnie. Rynki nie spodziewały się bowiem obniżek stóp procentowych, skoro inflacja wzrosła już do 4,3%.
Dzisiaj w kalendarzu danych makroekonomicznych warto zwrócić uwagę na:
13:00 – Wielka Brytania – decyzja w sprawie stóp procentowych,
14:00 – Niemcy – inflacja konsumencka,
14:30 – USA – PKB,
14:30 – USA – dochody i wydatki Amerykanów.
/materiał partnera
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