USA i Iran podpisały 60-dniowe memorandum pokojowe. W tym czasie trwają negocjacje w sprawie docelowego porozumienia. Jest jednak wiele punktów zapalnych, które powodują, że rozmowy nie idą tak sprawnie, jak można by zakładać. Z jednej strony mamy kwestię kontrolerów międzynarodowych, których USA chce wysyłać już teraz, a Iran wolałby poczekać na porozumienie. Z drugiej strony pozostają sankcje i zamrożone środki Iranu.
Wiadomo, że Iran chciałby szybciej wrócić na rynki, by zacząć zarabiać pieniądze na odbudowę. Tutaj z kolei USA wolą poczekać. Do tego dochodzi jakiś mętny program 300 mld USD na odbudowę, którego finansowanie nie jest oczywiste. W takiej sytuacji rynki powinny podchodzić do tematu dość sceptycznie. Powinny, ale wygląda na to, że analitycy raczej oglądają piłkę, niż analizują Bliski Wschód. Ropa Brent w ciągu dwóch tygodni staniała o imponujące 16 USD i nie wygląda na to, że to był koniec tej podróży.
Na rynkach inwestorzy powoli przygotowują się na nową rzeczywistość. Dotychczas plany finansowe wielu spółek tworzone były w oparciu o spadające koszty finansowania. Mamy zatem dokładnie odwrotną sytuację niż ta, na którą przygotowywały się rynki.
Już teraz widać pewien niepokój na giełdach. Szczególnie odczuwa to branża AI, która finansuje się długiem w obszarze budowy centrów danych. Nie widać jeszcze kryzysu na giełdach, ale kilka ostatnich dni dało wielu osobom do myślenia. Zadyszkę widać również na kryptowalutach. Wraz ze wzrostem stóp procentowych kapitał odpływa bowiem na rynki postrzegane jako bardziej bezpieczne. Wczoraj przez moment za bitcoina płacono poniżej 60 000 USD.
Ostatnie dni charakteryzują się bardzo słabymi wynikami złotego. Jak zawsze w takich momentach warto spojrzeć, jak zachowują się czeska korona i forint. Obie te waluty również w ostatnich dniach znajdują się w odwrocie. Trochę stabilniejsza jest korona czeska, która traci mniej. Gdy waluty naszego regionu zachowują się podobnie, powodów raczej trzeba szukać na zewnątrz. Źródłem presji wydaje się sytuacja na rynkach globalnych. Umacniający się dolar wysysa bowiem kapitał z innych części świata. Bardziej tracą słabsze waluty, a do takich względem euro należą właśnie polski złoty, czeska korona i węgierski forint.
Dzisiaj w kalendarzu danych makroekonomicznych warto zwrócić uwagę na:
14:30 – USA – PKB,
14:30 – USA – dochody i wydatki Amerykanów.
/materiał partnera
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